The Red Carpet

Here's what triggered this analysis: At HotStart VC, we invest in brands founded by celebrities and creators. We're constantly evaluating partnerships across the entire fame spectrum. From household names to rising talents. Recently, we made two investments that perfectly illustrate this dynamic.

One was a global icon everyone knows. The other was a rising star most people haven't heard of yet. Both investments made perfect sense, for completely different reasons.

The truth is, there's no universal answer to whether established icons or rising stars make better co-founders. But there is a framework for understanding which type matches the company’s specific goals, timeline, and risk tolerance.

Let me show you exactly how these two models differ and why both can build billion-dollar brands when deployed correctly.

The Ad

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The Director's Cut

The Two Types of Star Power

At HotStart VC, we invest in brands founded by anyone with a following: athletes, actors, musicians, influencers, creators. But across these categories, they all fall into two distinct groups based on their career stage: established icons and rising stars.

Established Icons have already reached the pinnacle of fame. Think LeBron James, Angelina Jolie, PewDiePie, Robert Downey Jr., or Kylie Jenner. They've built massive platforms over the years or decades and have become household names. They've won their championships, starred in blockbusters, and accumulated generational wealth.

Rising Stars are on their way up. They might have millions of followers, but they haven't peaked yet. Think of actors in their first Marvel movie, athletes in their rookie years, or creators hitting their first viral moment. They're building their empires in real-time, hungry for the success that established icons already possess.

The fundamental question isn't which type is better; it's understanding how their different career stages create vastly different value for your company. Today, I'm breaking down the key differences across four critical dimensions that determine success: 

Star Power Leverge: Current reach and activation frequency 

Motivation Matrix: Drive, hunger, and what’s “left in the tank” 

Growth Potential: Audience growth trajectories and cultural relevance 

Economics: Pricing, equity requirements, and partnership structures

Star Power Leverage

When evaluating star power, the first major difference is understanding what each type can actually deliver to your company and how often they can deliver it.

Established Icon:

The leverage of an A-list name opens doors that rising stars simply can't access. When Robert Downey Jr. wants a meeting with Target's CEO, he gets it. When LeBron James seeks top-tier investors, they clear their calendars. Their name value alone carries weight across industries, guarantees media coverage from Reuters to Vogue, and translates into retail distribution and partnerships that emerging creators can't secure. Their 50 million followers represent decades of accumulated influence.

The trade-off: this leverage activates rarely. Angelina Jolie might do one movie every 2-3 years now. Each film gives you a 3-month promotional window where she's doing press, attending premieres, and posting content. That's 3 months of activation every 36 months. Between those moments, the star power sits dormant. You're buying nuclear-level influence that detonates infrequently. When it does, it opens every door. When it doesn't, you wait.

Rising Star:

Rising stars can't call CEOs directly or guarantee national retail distribution. Their 2 million followers won't trigger automatic media coverage. But they offer different leverage: constant activation. They post multiple times per week, sometimes multiple times per day. They're on podcasts monthly, launching new shows quarterly, and collaborating with other creators constantly.

The math reveals the trade-off: A rising star posting 5 times per week generates 260 touchpoints per year. An established icon doing quarterly appearances generates 4. That's 65x more activation frequency. They can't get you into Walmart with one phone call, but they can drive thousands of daily website visits. They can't secure venture capital meetings with their name alone, but they can maintain constant audience engagement that keeps your brand top of mind.

The leverage question becomes: Do you need someone who can open any door but rarely walks through them? Or someone who can't access the penthouse but works the lobby every single day?

The Motivation Matrix

The second critical difference lies in what drives each type of partner, and whether they have enough left in the tank.

Established Icon:

Let's address the uncomfortable truth: When you have $30M in the bank, the motivation calculus changes fundamentally. Working weekends to perfect a product launch, answering midnight emails about supply chain issues, or flying to retail meetings in secondary markets; these feel less like opportunities and more like obligations when you're already set for life.

This isn't about laziness. It's about human nature. After decades of grinding to reach the top, many established icons are in preservation mode, not building mode. They've earned the right to be selective, to say no, to prioritize family time over another business venture. The critical question becomes: Do they have enough left in the tank to build another empire? Or are they looking for easy wins that leverage their name without requiring their soul? One founder told me bluntly, "I realized our celebrity co-founder saw this as a side project. For us, it was everything. That misalignment killed us."

But that comfort also brings advantages. Established icons can take bigger risks, invest their own capital, and weather early losses without panic. They're playing with house money, which often leads to better long-term decisions. They've also learned from past failures and bring wisdom that money can't buy.

Rising Star:

Hunger is a powerful accelerant. Rising stars will answer emails at midnight, obsess over customer reviews, and treat every retail meeting like their NBA finals. This intensity can transform good products into great brands. They're building their first fortune, not their third, and that desperation drives different behavior.

However, we must acknowledge what we don't know: Rising stars lack a track record of long-term commitment. Will they maintain this intensity for 10-20 years? Or will success change them into the very established icons who now lack hunger? We've seen creators burn bright and burn out. The same drive that makes them grind 80-hour weeks at 25 might evaporate when they hit their first $5M at 28. There's simply not enough data to predict which rising stars will maintain their edge versus which will lose it with success.

That same hunger can also create challenges. Desperation can lead to short-term thinking, brand dilution, or accepting bad deals. The pressure to monetize quickly can undermine long-term brand building.

The motivation question becomes: Do you want a partner who's comfortable enough to make patient decisions? Or someone whose hunger might drive extraordinary results but also risky moves?

The Growth Potential

The third dimension is trajectory: Are you buying at the peak or the ground floor?

Established Icon:

When you partner with someone at their peak, the best-case scenario is maintaining that peak. More realistically, you're partnering with someone on the back end of their career. The actress who once did three films a year now does one every three years. The athlete who was on our screens every Sunday is now retired, making occasional ESPN appearances. The content creator who posted daily vlogs in their twenties now manages monthly uploads in their thirties.

The math is sobering: Tom Cruise's social following has grown 2% annually while Nick DiGiovanni's grew 400% in the same period. This isn't just reduced output, it's declining cultural momentum. When you're not consistently creating new moments, audiences move on. They find new favorites who are actively competing for their attention. Yesterday's superstar becomes today's nostalgic memory. The established icon's influence doesn't disappear overnight, but their trajectory points steadily downward as newer names capture the cultural conversation.

Rising Star:

Rising stars are at the beginning of their audience growth curve. Their 500K followers today could be 20M next year. Emma Chamberlain grew from 500K to 12M in under three years. MrBeast expanded from 1M to 200M in five years. When you partner early, your brand benefits from every follower milestone they achieve.

As rising stars expand, they open new territories. They start on TikTok, expand to YouTube, launch podcasts, land magazine covers. Each new platform multiplies their reach and gives your brand access to entirely new audiences. While established icons slowly exit cultural conversations, rising stars are entering them. They're setting trends, creating moments, building momentum that translates directly to brand visibility.

But the creator economy graveyard is littered with one-hit wonders. For every MrBeast, there are thousands of creators who peaked with one viral moment and never recaptured that momentum. The creator with 500K followers you bet on today could still have 500K followers in three years. Some plateau immediately. Others flame out. Charli D'Amelio exploded to 150M followers faster than any creator in history, then left the platform to pursue other opportunities. Unlike established icons whose influence predictably declines, rising stars offer no predictable pattern. The potential for 10x audience growth exists, but so does stagnation or complete collapse.

The growth question becomes: Do you want proven influence that's slowly declining? Or unproven potential that could explode or implode?

The Economics

The fourth key difference is the financial structure of each partnership type.

Established Icon Pricing:

Expect to pay premium prices for proven platforms:

• Equity requirements: 15-30%

• Upfront guarantees: Often required ($1-10M depending on their tier) 

• Infrastructure needs: Teams, stylists, handles, security 

• Marketing expectations: Best-in-class photo shoots, PR agency, and traditional media campaigns

• Ongoing costs: First-class everything, five-star hotels, $100k photoshoots, $30K per month PR agency, $1M in traditional media just to tell people your celebrity is involved.

You're essentially paying for de-risked distribution. Their audience exists, their influence is proven, and their ability to generate media coverage is guaranteed. But you're paying peak prices for potentially declining influence. One founder compared it to "buying Apple stock at $200. It's valuable, but the 1000% gains already happened for someone else." However, that proven value can justify the premium. You're buying certainty in an uncertain market.

Rising Star Pricing:

More accessible entry points create different economics:

• Equity requirements: 5-15%

• Upfront guarantees: Rarely required 

• Infrastructure needs: Minimal, as they are used to creating with iPhones

• Marketing expectations: Authentic over polished

• Ongoing costs: Minimal. Economy flights are fine

You're buying an option on future influence. If they become the next MrBeast, you've secured a lottery ticket at a fraction of the price. If they plateau, you've minimized your downside. The risk-reward profile is fundamentally different. Higher variance but potentially massive returns. But for every lottery ticket that pays off, dozens expire worthless. You might be funding someone's brief moment of fame rather than a lasting career.

The economic question becomes: Do you want to pay premium prices for proven returns? Or take calculated risks for potentially exponential rewards?

The Bottom Line

Here's what investing in brands founded by celebrities and creators has revealed a counterintuitive truth: Success isn't about choosing established icons or rising stars. It's about matching the right type to your specific needs.

Established icons offer instant credibility, proven platforms, and patient capital. But they come with higher costs, limited growth, and legitimate questions about motivation. When someone already has $100M, will they really grind for your brand's success? Rising stars bring growth potential, authentic engagement, and hunger. But they also bring uncertainty, limited track records, and platform risk.

The best partnerships align incentives with lifecycle stage. Need global recognition tomorrow? Established icon. Building for the next decade? Rising star. Ask yourself: Do I need someone who can get me into any room today? Or someone who will be in every room tomorrow?

The smartest brands often hedge their bets, combining an established icon for immediate credibility with rising stars for long-term growth. In a world where every brand wants celebrity involvement, the winners aren't those who land the biggest names. They're those who find the right names for their specific moment.

The Mic Drop

HotStart VC’s Backstage Pass

FYR launched FYR Grill Pro (with 10% discount!)

Portfolio company FYR, co‑founded by live‑fire grilling expert Derek Wolf, has officially launched the FYR Grill Pro. The portable, high‑durability grill is engineered for serious cooking anywhere and designed to bring professional‑style live‑fire performance to creators and enthusiasts alike. From backyard sessions to tailgate setups, the FYR Grill Pro is built for the fire‑first cook. Full grill info here.

BETR Hits #6 in U.S. App Store Downloads

Portfolio company BETR, co-founded by Jake Paul, is now the #6 most downloaded sports betting app in the United States. The social-first platform continues climbing the charts, surpassing long-time category leaders, as the team gears up for a big push this NFL season.

Take #19

The established vs. rising star decision reveals a fundamental truth: You're not just choosing a celebrity, you're choosing a growth trajectory.

At HotStart VC, we've seen billion-dollar outcomes from both models. The difference isn't the type of celebrity; it's the alignment between their career stage and your brand needs.

Here's the framework: Established icons compress time but limit growth. Rising stars extend time but multiply potential. Choose based on what your brand needs most: certainty or possibility.

Smart founders match their timeline to their celebrity's trajectory. Building a luxury brand that needs instant prestige? Established icon. Creating a digitally-native brand for Gen Z? Rising star.

Remember: In celebrity partnerships, the question isn't "how famous are they?" It's "where are they going, and does that match where we're going?"

Welcome to the fame game,

Scott

P.S. Wrestling with whether to approach an established icon or rising star for your brand? Hit reply with your situation. The right answer depends entirely on where you're trying to go.

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About HotStart VC

HotStart VC is launching a new fund to invest in brands founded by celebrities and creators. We’re building the go-to platform for creators and celebrities launching brands, providing capital, strategic support, and the infrastructure to scale.