The Red Carpet

Here's what triggered this deep dive: Every single week, I get pitched by either a celebrity wanting to launch a liquor brand or a liquor brand desperately seeking a celebrity co-founder. They all want to be the next Casamigos or Aviation Gin, but their entire plan is "post on Instagram to my 10 million followers." That's not a strategy. That's a prayer.

The data tells a sobering story: Only 7 celebrity liquor brands have achieved meaningful exits above $100M since Clooney's billion-dollar payday. Meanwhile, the category has become so saturated that acquisition multiples are crashing, from premium valuations to distressed sales. While George Clooney's Casamigos exit created a gold rush, what most celebrities don't realize is they're arriving at a party that's already over. Let me show you why the liquor cabinet is full and why smart money is already moving to the next category.

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The Director's Cut

The Night George Clooney Ruined Everything

June 21, 2017. George Clooney wakes up $1 billion richer.

Diageo just bought his tequila brand Casamigos for a price that made every celebrity manager in Hollywood spit out their morning latte.

The math was intoxicating: Clooney and his partners invested $600,000. They sold for $1 billion. That's a 1,666x return in just 4 years.

Within 48 hours, every celebrity's agent was calling distilleries.

The Numbers That Started a Gold Rush

Let me show you how dramatically the landscape shifted:

2018: 40 celebrity-founded liquor brands

2024: 650+ celebrity-founded liquor brands 

That's a 1,525% increase in just 6 years.

The saturation is so extreme that every celebrity has now been pitched by 20+ different liquor brands to become their co-founder. I get calls weekly from liquor brands desperately seeking any celebrity who hasn't already said no. The desperation is palpable.

But here's what nobody talks about: While launches increased 16-fold, the number of successful exits barely moved. Only 7 brands have achieved meaningful exits above $100M.

And despite this explosion, the average celebrity liquor brand still struggles to break $5M in annual revenue. More brands, same limited shelf space, worse outcomes.

Why Celebrities Can't Resist the Bottle

There's a reason every celebrity gravitates toward liquor. On the surface, it's about sophistication. Celebrities want to launch products that match their aspirational image. Premium spirits signal taste, success, and refinement. It's not about selling merch anymore. It's about selling a lifestyle.

But let's be honest about what's really happening. Most celebrities are just pattern-matching. They see Clooney's billion. McGregor's $600M. Reynolds' $610M. The Rock's $3.5B valuation. They think, "If they can do it, so can I."

They're not analyzing why those brands worked. They're not studying the market dynamics. They're not building unique strategies. They're just copying the category and hoping fame fills in the gaps.

Spoiler alert: It doesn't.

The Moat Problem

Here's the fundamental issue with liquor: There's no moat.

Anyone can source decent tequila from Jalisco, design a pretty bottle, and leverage distribution relationships. Without proprietary technology, unique IP, or network effects, these brands are just marketing wrapped around commodity juice.

I've tasted dozens of these brands. Most taste like disappointment mixed with marketing budget. Because when there's no real differentiation in product, process, or purpose, you're left with commodity juice in a fancy bottle.

Compare liquor to categories with actual defensibility:

• Beauty brands with patented formulations

• Apparel with innovative fabrics or fits

• Wellness products with proprietary science

• Tech platforms with network effects

Liquor has none of that. It's the same agave, the same distillation process, the same distribution channels. The only difference is whose face is on the bottle.

The Hidden Economics of Liquor

There are only 75,000 liquor stores in America. The average store carries 500 SKUs. Premium shelf space? Maybe 50 brands.

Do the math: 650 celebrity-founded liquor brands fighting for 50 spots.

Unlike DTC brands, liquor must go through distributors. These gatekeepers now demand:

• Slotting fees: $50,000 - $100,000 per state

• Marketing commitments: $1M annually 

• Guaranteed volumes: 10,000+ cases

Most celebrity-founded brands burn through their entire seed round just getting into California and New York.

Even if you survive the distribution gauntlet, here's the P&L reality waiting for you:

• Production cost: $8-12 per bottle

• Distributor cut: 25-30% 

• Retailer margin: 30-35% 

• Marketing: 20% of revenue

• Celebrity take: Whatever’s left (usually nothing) 

Final margin: 5-15% if you're lucky.

The Celebrity-Product-Market Fit Problem

Here's what kills most celebrity liquor brands: The celebrity likes to drink.

That's it. That's their entire qualification.

They enjoy tequila on vacation. They order whiskey at events. They post champagne photos on New Year's. And somehow they think this translates to building a spirits empire.

But liking liquor and building a liquor brand are as different as enjoying music and running a record label.

At HotStart VC, one of our most important criteria is Celebrity-Product-Market Fit. It's the alignment between who the celebrity authentically is, what problem their product solves, and whether their audience is the right market to buy.

Think of it this way: If your audience doesn't follow you for drinking content, they won't follow you to the liquor store.

Most celebrities completely miss this. They see liquor as aspirational and sophisticated, so they launch a brand. But their audience followed them for fashion advice, workout tips, or movie reviews - not drinking recommendations.

Celebrity-Product-Market Fit only works when drinking is already core to your brand. Perfect example: Happy Dad by the NELK Boys.

• Who they are: YouTube pranksters famous for shotgunning beers and party content

• Their audience: 21-25-year-olds who watch them specifically for drinking content

• Their content: Every video features alcohol - it’s not product placement, it’s their lifestyle

• The fit: Their fans literally watch them drink - of course they’ll buy what they’re drinking

• Result: $70M revenue annually by year four and growing fast

Now compare that to a 45-year-old actress launching tequila:

• Who she is: Rom-com star known for feel-good movies

• Her audience: 35-50-year-old women seeking lifestyle inspiration

• Her content: Wellness tips, family moments, fashion posts

• The misfit: Zero connection between her brand and alcohol

• Result: $2M in revenue, discontinued in 18 months

The difference isn't fame. It's fit. And 90% of celebrity liquor founders can't even explain their mash bill, let alone their product-market fit.

The Five Fatal Flaws of Celebrity Liquor Brands

To summarize why 90% of celebrity liquor brands fail, they consistently make these five mistakes:

Wrong Celebrity for the Category: No drinking credibility. They're known for romantic comedies or wellness content, not nightlife. Their personal brand has zero connection to spirits.

Wrong Audience: Their followers either don't drink, can't afford $50 tequila, or both. A celebrity with teen fans launching premium whiskey? Dead on arrival.

Wrong Commitment Level: They post twice on Instagram then disappear. Meanwhile, The Rock is personally visiting 300 liquor stores. Guess who wins?

Wrong Timing: Arriving after 600 others to a party with room for 50. It's like launching a cupcake shop in 2012. The trend is over.

No Moat: Commodity product with fancy packaging. No proprietary technology. No unique formulation. No defensibility. Just another bottle.

These aren't minor issues. They're fatal flaws. And most celebrity liquor brands have all five.

The Few Who Actually Won (And Why)

Since Clooney's exit, only a handful have achieved real success:

Conor McGregor's Proper No. Twelve - Sold to Proximo Spirits for $600M. McGregor understood something others didn't. He personally visited hundreds of bars, did the tastings, and built authentic grassroots support in Ireland before going global.

Jay-Z's D'Ussé Cognac - Bacardi bought out Jay-Z's 50% stake for $750M. But this wasn't overnight success. Jay-Z spent a decade building D'Ussé into a luxury status symbol, not just another celebrity cash grab.

Ryan Reynolds' Aviation Gin - Sold for $610M to Diageo. Reynolds didn't just endorse, he became the chief creative officer and personally wrote every ad.

The Rock's Teremana - Valued at $3.5B (no exit yet). Dwayne Johnson visits distilleries, signs bottles at liquor stores, and treats it like his primary job.

Notice the pattern? They all worked. Really worked. For years.

The Brutal Truth: The World Doesn't Need Another Celebrity Liquor Brand

Even if celebrities could solve every problem (find their product-market fit, build a real moat, navigate the distribution nightmare) we need to ask ourselves a more fundamental question.

Does the world need another celebrity liquor brand?

We're drowning in options. The liquor aisle is full. Every possible flavor profile, price point, and positioning already exists. What value does celebrity liquor brand #651 add to the world?

Most are just selling subpar products in oversaturated markets at premium prices. They might convince their audience to buy once. The Instagram flex purchase. But after that horrible experience? Never again.

The Second Wave: Where Smart Celebrities Are Going

So if the world doesn't need another celebrity liquor brand, what does it need?

Celebrities solving real problems with real innovation.

The smartest celebrities have already figured this out. They're not chasing Clooney's ghost anymore. They're building mental health platforms that actually help people. Nutrition brands with patented ingredients that improve lives. Tech companies that solve genuine pain points.

Call it the Second Wave.

First Wave (2017-2023): Liquor, beauty, and apparel. Crowded categories. Commodity products. Marketing-driven differentiation.

Second Wave (2024+): Innovation-first categories. Proprietary technology. Actual moats. Problems worth solving.

The difference? These aren't just slapping a name on a bottle. They're building defensible businesses that happen to have celebrity accelerants.

At HotStart VC, this is exactly what we back. We invest in celebrities and creators launching innovative products and services that solve actual problems. Not because we're anti-liquor (we'd invest in truly innovative spirits), but because we invest in unfair advantages. And in 2024, there's no unfair advantage in being the 651st celebrity tequila.

The celebrity liquor rush is over. Not because celebrities can't sell products, but because the math no longer works. When 650 brands fight for 50 shelf spots with identical products, even fame can't save you.

The celebrities still pitching liquor are fighting yesterday's war. The ones building tomorrow's billion-dollar brands? They're solving real problems with real innovation.

The Bottom Line

The celebrity liquor boom isn't just slowing. It's over. The exits have dried up. The multiples have crashed. The shelf space is gone.

But here's what's exciting: The end of the liquor gold rush marks the beginning of something better. Celebrities are finally moving beyond copycat strategies into categories where their influence can amplify actual innovation.

The next wave of celebrity brands won't be built on borrowed formulas and fancy bottles. They'll be built on proprietary technology, real customer problems, and defensible moats.

The world doesn't need another celebrity tequila. It needs celebrities using their platforms to solve real problems. Mental health solutions that scale. Nutrition innovations that work. Tech platforms that matter.

At HotStart VC, we're not investing in the 651st celebrity tequila. We're investing in the first celebrity-founded mental health platform. The first celebrity-backed biotech. The first celebrity-powered marketplace.

Because while everyone else is still trying to be the next Casamigos, the smartest celebrities are building something that has never existed before.

The Mic Drop

HotStart VC’s Backstage Pass

No big updates - heads down in content production

No major updates from HotStart VC or our portfolio this week. We’re heads down turning LinkedIn and newsletter content into short-form videos for TikTok and Instagram, and recording episodes for the upcoming HotStart VC podcast, which will be launching soon.

Take #18

The celebrity liquor boom taught us a valuable lesson: Pattern matching without understanding patterns is a recipe for failure. Everyone copied the category (liquor) but ignored the fundamentals (fit, timing, commitment, and moat).

Here's the new playbook: Celebrity-Product-Market Fit + Defensible Innovation + Actual Commitment. Before launching anything, map these three elements. If any are missing, you're building on quicksand.

The celebrities winning in 2024 aren't following formulas - they're creating new categories where their specific advantages compound. They're not asking "How can I copy Clooney?" They're asking "What unique problem can I solve?"

Remember: In a world where everyone's launching liquor, the real opportunity is everything else.

Welcome to the fame game,

Scott

P.S. Have a celebrity-founded brand you think I should analyze? Or a founder I should meet? Hit reply. I read everything.

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About HotStart VC

HotStart VC is launching a new fund to invest in brands founded by celebrities and creators. We’re building the go-to platform for creators and celebrities launching brands, providing capital, strategic support, and the infrastructure to scale.